Is the Fed signaling a hawkish turn? Bitcoin faces a new test? The latest Fed meeting minutes show a clear shift toward caution, with preparations underway for potential rate hikes. Here are the key takeaways from the meeting: 1. Rate hike expectations are heating up The June FOMC meeting kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, but the dot plot reveals that 9 out of 18 officials now anticipate at least one rate hike this year—compared to zero back in March. Meanwhile, only one official expects a rate cut this year, signaling that the market's previous bets on easing are cooling rapidly. 2. AI investments flagged as inflation risks for the first time Interestingly, the meeting minutes highlighted the AI investment boom as a potential source of inflation for the first time. The Fed noted that companies ramping up AI infrastructure spending could drive up costs for equipment, energy, electricity, and labor—potentially delaying inflation's decline. Beyond AI, escalating tensions in the Middle East and changes in tariff policies were also identified as key factors that could fuel inflation in the future. 3. The market enters "CPI moment" The next big focus will be the June CPI data, set to be released on July 14. If core CPI continues to exceed expectations, rate hike forecasts could intensify. Conversely, if inflation shows a clear cooling trend, it may ease market pressures. On the same day, Fed Chair Warsh will make his first appearance at a congressional hearing, and his remarks could serve as a new market indicator. What does this mean for the crypto market? For risk assets like Bitcoin, the market is currently caught between two opposing forces: ✅ ETF inflows and growing institutional demand are providing long-term support for the market; ❌ However, if inflation remains elevated and the Fed maintains high rates—or even hikes them again—it could push up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, creating short-term pressure on BTC. In the short term, July's CPI data and statements from Fed officials will remain key variables in determining market direction. Do you think the Fed will hike rates this year? Share your thoughts in the comments #FederalReserve #CPI #BTC