Bitcoin has recently fallen to around $62000 due to the impact of the US Iran conflict, and some analysts predict that the bear market may end in September to October this year. Trader Ryker expects Bitcoin to rise in September or October, while trader Jelle points out that weekly "death crosses" typically occur at the end of bear markets. The key resistance level for Bitcoin is $64000, and if it cannot break through or fall back to $57800. This week, the market will receive June CPI and PPI data from the United States, as well as testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh to Congress. The US Iran conflict and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up inflation expectations. According to CryptoQuant data, medium-sized coin holders holding 100 to 1000 BTC sold approximately 67000 BTC on July 13th, setting a record for the largest distribution since February of this year.
AI interpretation: The June CPI data in the United States directly determines the subsequent monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve. The volatility of inflation data directly impacts the risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market, and high inflation expectations will suppress the liquidity premium of Bitcoin. The sensitivity of the market to inflation determines the pace of capital switching between safe haven and risky assets. The release of this macro indicator is the core variable that affects the short-term price trend of Bitcoin, directly influencing the holding decisions of institutional investors.
