The US June CPI was 4.2% year-on-year, with a market consensus of 3.8%. JP Morgan, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, JEFFERIES predict 3.7%; UBS and Wells Fargo predict 3.7%; Citigroup, BofA, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, HSBC, ING predict 3.8%; Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, Helaba, Capital Economics predict 3.9%; Berenberg, DBS, Sumitomo, and Scotiabank predict 4.0%. The core CPI of the United States in June was 2.9% year-on-year, with a market consensus of 2.8%. Deutsche Bank predicts 2.7%, BNP Paribas predicts 3.0%; ING、Citigroup、Goldman、HSBC、JP Morgan、Nomura、JEFFERIES、UBS、Wells Fargo、Morgan Stanley Prediction 2.8%; BofA、Capital Economics、Sumitomo、Danske、Scotiabank、Standard Chartered、UniCredit、Helaba Predicted 2.9%.
AI interpretation: Several top investment banks have highly concentrated forecasts for the US June CPI and core CPI, indicating that the market has formed a consensus on the downward trend of inflation. The narrowing of core inflation expectations reflects that price pressures are experiencing substantial easing. This consistency expectation reduces the market volatility risk at the time of data release and provides a clear reference benchmark for the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy decisions. The current path of inflation decline is in line with the market's judgment of an economic soft landing, further consolidating the logical basis for the shift in interest rate policy.
