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Today's market has only one theme - waiting for CPI.
Last Thursday's live broadcast told everyone that before the CPI was announced, the big pie was likely to fluctuate back and forth within the same day of the 6th. The trend in recent days has also confirmed our idea: BTC is currently around 62400, and the volume has been fluctuating throughout the day. Yesterday, the highest was 64380, the lowest was 61800, and it was washed back and forth at 2000 o'clock. Now the hourly Bollinger Bands are closing, both long and short are waiting for data. ETH synchronization, current price around 1755, fluctuating narrowly between 1750-1800.
Tonight at 8:30, the June CPI data for the United States will be released. The market expects the CPI to slow down from 4.2% to 3.8%, and the core CPI is expected to be 2.9%.
But the real risk lies in Federal Reserve Governor Waller personally hawkishly stating yesterday that if core inflation continues to remain high, the FOMC will need to consider raising interest rates in the short term. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 58.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 41.7%. By September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 24.9%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 51.2%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 23.9%.
The US Iran conflict is still escalating, and oil prices are driving inflation.
Three ways to track CPI tonight
The first scenario is that CPI is lower than expected (<3.8%): Concerns about interest rate hikes have been lifted, BTC has directly surged above 64500, and ETH is expected to rise above 1850.
The second scenario is that CPI is higher than expected (>3.8%): the probability of interest rate hikes will surge again, BTC will break through 61300 and look towards the 60000 level, ETH will look at 1720, and if it cannot be held, it will be between 1650-1680.
The third option is that the CPI meets expectations (around 3.8%, core 2.8% -2.9%): This is the most easily overlooked approach, but it is precisely what needs to be prepared in advance.
The overall CPI has dropped from 4.2% to 3.8%, indicating a cooling of inflation on the surface. But the core CPI only slightly decreased from 2.9% to 2.8%, and the annualized service inflation of 3.4% is much higher than the historical average of 2.6%. The Federal Reserve is truly focusing on the core CPI, not the overall CPI.
How to proceed as expected? At the moment the data came out, the market was probably the first to jump up and down, with both long and short positions killing each other - the news of overall cooling excited the bulls, but the core remained stubborn, making the bears unwilling to retreat. A violent fluctuation of 15-30 minutes is a high probability event, do not chase after the rise or fall in the first candlestick. After the emotions are digested, the market will return to the main line of "core inflation stickiness+expectation of interest rate hikes". If the price falls back to the 61300-61800 range and a stop falling candlestick appears, it is a relatively reasonable position to try long; If the rebound reaches around 63000-63500 and the volume shrinks and stagnates, bears still have reason to sell.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
