Changxin Technology aims to achieve a DRAM market share of 11% by 2028, and Counterpoint analyzes its technological path

Counterpoint Research Director Hwang Minsung pointed out that a global DRAM market share of 15% is the long-term survival benchmark for Changxin Technology, and below this level will repeat the mistake of Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers falling to 3% in 2008. The current market share of CXMT's global DRAM bit shipments is about 9%, with a target to increase to 11% by 2028. The company plans to increase its production capacity to 420000 wafers by 2027, double it by 2030, and triple it by 2035. Neil Shah pointed out that US equipment export restrictions have prompted CXMT to seek breakthroughs in differentiated technology paths such as vertical channel transistors and wafer to wafer bonding. Counterpoint focuses on four major variables after the IPO, including the potential revenue of approximately $2 billion for HBM in 2028, and whether it can achieve a market share of 20% and 15% respectively in the Bitcoin and revenue segments in the medium to long term.