BTC option volatility drops, put call ratio hits six-month low

Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/8775583296 1. Global macro bearish news: The biggest suppression in today's market comes from the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the new round of US airstrikes on Iran, and the collective sale of high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies by safe haven funds. Last night, the US Nasdaq fell 1.47%, semiconductors plummeted across the board, and Coinbase fell synchronously, bringing sustained bearish pressure to the entire cryptocurrency circle. The combination of hawkish speeches by Federal Reserve officials, delayed expectations of interest rate cuts, and the strengthening of US dollar and bond yields continue to suppress bullish sentiment in cryptocurrency assets, which is a macroeconomic bearish trend that runs throughout the day. The differentiation of funds has intensified, with a slight net inflow of 79.1 million into BTC spot ETFs yesterday, but a net outflow of 28 million from ETH spot ETFs. ETH has emerged from an independent and resilient market, once again disconnected from BTC's trend; The overall spot trading volume in the market continues to be sluggish, with obvious characteristics of the game between existing funds. Institutions switch between high and low levels, with only short-term large and retail investors retaining bullish expectations, and incremental funds completely absent. 2. Technical naked K+BOLL indicator: 4-hour level reversal, short-term moving average turning downward, price stabilizing at the lower Bollinger Bands, opening a small repair; But the daily level is still weak, and the price of the currency has fallen below the 7-day moving average, below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a severe downward trend in multiple cycles. Key interval reference: Upper pressure range of 1865~1885 (strong pressure zone of Bollinger Bands), lower support range of 1780-1750 (lower limit of daily key Bollinger Bands, falling below it will open up a new round of downward space). Today, the geopolitical bearish sentiment continues to ferment, and there are slight signs of downward expansion at the opening of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the downside risk has not been relieved. 3. Practical operation suggestions Multiple bearish factors have significantly increased the difficulty of short-term operations today. Double directional fluctuations of large and small fluctuations can be triggered at any time. Heavy positions are strictly prohibited and light positions should be traded in line with the trend. Priority should be given to waiting for pressure/support levels to confirm effective breakthroughs before entering the market. For those who cannot understand the trend and cannot grasp the precise high and low points, come directly to the live broadcast room to monitor the market in real-time all day long, analyze geopolitical news and Bollinger and moving average signals in real time, and accurately capture opportunities to buy the bottom and touch the top! Tencent Meeting: 877-558-3296 Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.

Oxbow Advisors founder Ted Oakley warns that the US stock market is facing generational bear market risks, with an expected market pullback of 40% to 45%. He suggests investors pay attention to commodity and mining stocks. Ted Oakley pointed out that US stock valuations are deviating from normal levels and may peak in the next 6 to 12 months. Chief Investment Officer Chance Finucane expressed caution towards 2027. Oxbow Advisors warns against chasing high risks using Intel as an example, with current stock positions slightly exceeding 60%. Ted Oakley believes that it would be surprising if oil prices do not return to above $100, and he is optimistic about the prices of gold, miners, and silver next year, despite gold currently hovering below $4000.

[Darkfost: Financial Pressure on Bitcoin Miners Intensifies, Health Ratio Approaching Bear Market Levels] According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin miners are facing operational pressure, with the financial health ratio (7-day moving average) fluctuating between 10% and 30%, a level close to peak bear market performance.

Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from the Federal Reserve's expectation of tightening, central bank buying will provide bottom support for gold. In May, the central bank purchased 81 metric tons of gold, with an average monthly purchase of 67 metric tons over three months, far higher than the average level of 17 metric tons before 2022. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that as central banks diversify their reserves to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, the trend of central banks increasing their holdings of gold will continue for many years. Goldman Sachs predicts that the monthly average purchase volume for the next two years will be 50 metric tons and 40 metric tons respectively.

The South Korean Democratic Party will restart the Digital Asset Special Working Group after completing the leadership restructuring in August, and plans to propose the Digital Asset Basic Law bill in September, with the goal of completing legislation within the year. Democratic Party member Park Min gyu stated that the content and submission time of the bill will be coordinated by the National Assembly, the Presidential Office, and relevant departments, and discussions will begin as early as early September. In addition to clarifying the issuer of stablecoins, the bill also needs to improve market structure, security, and regulatory systems, and establish a localized digital asset system. Min Byung deok, a member of the Democratic Party, proposed to develop the Korean won stablecoin as a payment and settlement tool to support the overseas development of South Korean culture, commerce, tourism, and manufacturing industries. （Etoday）