According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 14.4%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 38.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 7.9%. AI interpretation: The current interest rate futures market clearly reflects the high certainty of the Federal Reserve maintaining policy stability in the short term. Staying put in July has become a market consensus, which directly sets the tone for recent monetary policy. The increasing probability of a rate hike in September reveals deep concerns in the market about the risk of inflation rebound, and this shift in expectations is reshaping asset pricing logic. The determination of the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates is fully reflected through market pricing, and investors must accept the reality of prolonged tightening cycles.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Abraxas Capital (0xb83... 6e36) deposited 3 million USDC into Hyperliquid and added 796.4 BTC short orders and 31600 ETH short orders, valued at approximately $51.5 million and $59.2 million, respectively.

Cardano activated the Van Rossem hard fork on July 19, 2026 at 05:44:51 (UTC+8), upgrading the network to protocol version 11. This upgrade belongs to the Conway ledger era and aims to reduce the operating costs of Plutus smart contracts, enhance ledger security, and add encryption tools. Van Rossem includes 5 Cardano improvement proposals, involving BLS12-381 multi scalar multiplication, on chain array types, multi asset value processing optimization, list operation acceleration, and built-in modular exponentiation. The upgrade was completed through the Cardano on chain governance process, and the authorized representative passed the proposal with a support rate of 77.63%. The support rate of the staking pool operator was 52.7%, and the voting result of the Constitutional Committee was 6-0-0-1. The total balance of wallets holding 100000 to 100 million ADAs has risen to the highest level since 2023, controlling over a quarter of the ADA circulation supply. Cardano will continue to promote Ouroboros Leios, aiming to achieve a target of over 1000 transactions per second during the testing period in 2026.

According to Bitcoin.com, the trading sentiment on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket betting on the CLARITY Act's official legislation in 2026 has turned bearish, and the probability of the bill's implementation within the year has fallen to a historical low.

According to the statistics of NYSE and FINRA, the scale of financing margin debt in the United States climbed to about 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), setting a historical record and surpassing the previous peaks before the bursting of the Internet foam in 2000, the financial crisis in 2008 and the market peak in 2021.