The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 38.5%

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 85.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 14.4%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 38.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 53.5%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 7.9%. AI interpretation: The current interest rate futures market clearly reflects the high certainty of the Federal Reserve maintaining policy stability in the short term. Staying put in July has become a market consensus, which directly sets the tone for recent monetary policy. The increasing probability of a rate hike in September reveals deep concerns in the market about the risk of inflation rebound, and this shift in expectations is reshaping asset pricing logic. The determination of the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates is fully reflected through market pricing, and investors must accept the reality of prolonged tightening cycles.