According to JinShi Data on August 29th, economists from Deutsche Bank predict that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh emphasized in his Jackson Hole speech the need to bring inflation back to the 2% target and send hawkish signals. According to CME data, the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 50 basis points or more by December has risen to 51%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points is 38%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 11%. After Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh's speech, the market's bets on a September rate hike have intensified.
AI interpretation: This prediction directly targets the path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, clearly indicating the continuation of tight monetary policy. Deutsche Bank's hawkish expectations are highly consistent with the policy stance of Federal Reserve officials, aimed at forcefully suppressing inflation through interest rate hikes. The market pricing has rapidly tilted towards interest rate hikes, reflecting investors' deep confirmation of the sustainability of the high interest rate environment. This move completely shattered the market's illusion of interest rate cuts within the year, further consolidating the Federal Reserve's policy tone of maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation.
