Polymarket predicts that the probability of closure of the Mandeb Strait by the end of August will increase to 21%

Polymarket predicts that the probability of the Mandeb Strait closing before August 31st will increase to 21%, and the probability of closing before September 30th will rise to 26% at one point. Ansar Allah, a Houthi armed group in Yemen, announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia with the aim of disrupting the flow of Saudi crude oil exports, involving over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil transportation. The predicted contract results are determined based on the maritime trade flow data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform PortWatch.