According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 59.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 41.0%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 46.6%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 44.8%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 8.6%.
AI interpretation: The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term dominates, reflecting the current observation window of monetary policy. The coexistence of the probability of interest rate hikes indicates that the market is still wary of the risk of inflation rebound, and the game of policy paths remains fierce. This expected distribution directly suppresses the market's aggressive bets on loose policies, forcing investors to reassess the duration of the high interest rate environment. The Federal Reserve has a clear tendency to maintain interest rate stability, and the expected space for policy shift in the short term has been significantly compressed.
