St. Louis Fed President Musalem said that the Fed needs to raise interest rates again to push inflation back to its target level of 2%, and monetary policy needs to be tightened to achieve the target within the timely deadline. Musalam said that if timely means about 18 months, then interest rates need to be raised at an appropriate time in the next 6 to 9 months. Musalam said that current inflation is the main problem facing the US economy, but with strong economic growth and a stable job market, the Federal Reserve can lower inflation without significantly damaging employment. Musalam remains open about whether to raise interest rates at the October 27-28 meeting and has not yet predicted the outcome, but the inflation situation requires policymakers to consider tightening policies. Musalam stated that despite the significant increase in US bond yields, the financial environment remains loose and supports economic growth. The rise in yields reflects market expectations of rising real interest rates and intensified capital competition in a strong economic environment.

US President Trump has repeatedly vetoed the Pentagon's proposed military action plan against Iran. Currently, Trump has ordered the launch of a strike plan, planning to launch a three-day operation targeting Iran's missiles, drone arsenal, energy facilities, and Revolutionary Guard headquarters. However, Trump has stated that he is having productive discussions with Iran and will not attack Iran before the midterm elections. (Source: The New York Times)

The US Treasury Department has taken action against Iran's shadow oil fleet, and Scott Besant warns sanctions evaders will face comprehensive sanctions.

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 82.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 17.7%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 18.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 67.6%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 13.7%. AI interpretation: This data reflects the latest pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in the market, clearly pointing to the consensus of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term. The change in the probability of interest rate hikes reveals the market's game between inflationary pressure and economic resilience, strengthening the expectation of maintaining high interest rates. This pricing logic directly suppresses the market's premature expectations of loose policies, forcing investors to reassess the risk premium of asset allocation. The policy stance of the Federal Reserve has shown strong continuity supported by current data, and the market has fully digested the reality that the tightening cycle has not yet ended.

In the past year, the phenomenon of BTC address reuse has increased, and the balance of reused addresses has grown from 3.79 million to 4.33 million, accounting for 21.5% of the circulating supply. （glassnode）