Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513
1、 Breaking down the current core message surface
Negative factors (dominating the medium-term market)
1. Concerns about inflation caused by the dual increase in US bond yields and oil prices
International crude oil continues to rebound, and the market is concerned about the resurgence of imported inflation; The yields of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds have risen. Bitcoin belongs to interest free risk assets, with higher returns and a tendency towards fixed income products, which continues to suppress the valuation of encrypted assets.
2. The expected cooling of the US Crypto Clarity Act (CLARITY)
The new version of the Senate bill has been opposed by Democratic lawmakers, and the market expects the probability of the bill passing to drop to 38%. Short term implementation is difficult, regulatory uncertainty persists, and institutional funds remain on the sidelines, making it difficult to generate a trend oriented market.
3. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious policy tone
As the July FOMC interest rate meeting approaches, the Federal Reserve is gradually entering a period of silence. The market unanimously expects the interest rate to remain unchanged in this negotiation; Labor resilience and inflation stickiness have caused the expectation of interest rate cuts to continue to be delayed, and bulls lack loose narrative support.
4. Weak risk appetite of market funds
Priority flow of funds to the technology sector of the US stock market; The trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has shrunk, and funds from counterfeit currencies continue to flow out. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is still under pressure and has not stabilized at the critical watershed, indicating that funds are unwilling to invest in high elasticity small and medium-sized currencies.
Positive support factors (bottoming out market, limiting deep decline)
1. BTC spot ETF maintains net inflow of funds in stages
Recently, ETFs have ended a long period of net outflows, ushering in continuous small inflows. Institutions have shown a willingness to undertake at a low level, forming bottom support for BTC and compressing the potential for a sharp decline.
2. There is currently no new round of intense conflicts in the Middle East geopolitics
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged, with no large-scale military conflict, thus avoiding the risk of extreme safe haven selling.
3. The panic in the market has been somewhat repaired
The Fear Greed Index deviates from the extreme panic range; The long-term chip support band below has been taken over by a giant whale, and a sharp drop can easily trigger a short covering rebound.
2、 Key Event Timeline (Top Priority)
20:30 PM US initial jobless claims data (short-term market catalyst)
Market expectation: 215000 people
Review of Transmission Logic:
Initial request>Expectations (weak employment) → Interest rate cuts expected to rise → Positive BTC/ETH short-term rebound
Initial request<expectation (strong employment) → postponed interest rate cut expectation → downward pressure
Attention: Initial application belongs to weekly high-frequency data, with weaker influence than CPI and non farm payroll. It is difficult to reverse the medium-term trend and will only amplify short-term fluctuations.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
