Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513 1、 Breaking down the current core message surface Negative factors (dominating the medium-term market) 1. Concerns about inflation caused by the dual increase in US bond yields and oil prices International crude oil continues to rebound, and the market is concerned about the resurgence of imported inflation; The yields of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds have risen. Bitcoin belongs to interest free risk assets, with higher returns and a tendency towards fixed income products, which continues to suppress the valuation of encrypted assets. 2. The expected cooling of the US Crypto Clarity Act (CLARITY) The new version of the Senate bill has been opposed by Democratic lawmakers, and the market expects the probability of the bill passing to drop to 38%. Short term implementation is difficult, regulatory uncertainty persists, and institutional funds remain on the sidelines, making it difficult to generate a trend oriented market. 3. The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious policy tone As the July FOMC interest rate meeting approaches, the Federal Reserve is gradually entering a period of silence. The market unanimously expects the interest rate to remain unchanged in this negotiation; Labor resilience and inflation stickiness have caused the expectation of interest rate cuts to continue to be delayed, and bulls lack loose narrative support. 4. Weak risk appetite of market funds Priority flow of funds to the technology sector of the US stock market; The trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has shrunk, and funds from counterfeit currencies continue to flow out. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is still under pressure and has not stabilized at the critical watershed, indicating that funds are unwilling to invest in high elasticity small and medium-sized currencies. Positive support factors (bottoming out market, limiting deep decline) 1. BTC spot ETF maintains net inflow of funds in stages Recently, ETFs have ended a long period of net outflows, ushering in continuous small inflows. Institutions have shown a willingness to undertake at a low level, forming bottom support for BTC and compressing the potential for a sharp decline. 2. There is currently no new round of intense conflicts in the Middle East geopolitics The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged, with no large-scale military conflict, thus avoiding the risk of extreme safe haven selling. 3. The panic in the market has been somewhat repaired The Fear Greed Index deviates from the extreme panic range; The long-term chip support band below has been taken over by a giant whale, and a sharp drop can easily trigger a short covering rebound. 2、 Key Event Timeline (Top Priority) 20:30 PM US initial jobless claims data (short-term market catalyst) Market expectation: 215000 people Review of Transmission Logic: Initial request>Expectations (weak employment) → Interest rate cuts expected to rise → Positive BTC/ETH short-term rebound Initial request<expectation (strong employment) → postponed interest rate cut expectation → downward pressure Attention: Initial application belongs to weekly high-frequency data, with weaker influence than CPI and non farm payroll. It is difficult to reverse the medium-term trend and will only amplify short-term fluctuations. Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.

Polymarket stated that it will challenge the nationwide blockade imposed by France and stated that the platform has disabled trading functions in France since November 2024. The French regulatory agency stated that the platform is still promoting illegal gambling and mentioned risks of losses, identity verification, and market manipulation. France is the latest country to require Internet service providers to block the platform after Ukraine, Argentina and Spain took similar measures.

The ETH trading price is 17% lower than the realized price, and only two out of five signals have reached historical lows. Selling pressure is weakening, and there has been no panic selling yet. （CryptoQuant）

Taiko released a security incident review on June 21st, confirming that the attack originated from off chain signature key leakage and verification process omission. The attacker forged proof and bypassed the Prover whitelist. The attacker stole approximately $1.75 million from the cross chain bridge and vault, with over $11 million in assets protected and no user funds lost. Taiko has fixed the vulnerability and re launched on July 2nd. OpenZeppelin audit confirmed that no vulnerabilities were found during the fix. The Unzen upgrade, which will be launched on August 6th, will require each block to submit a ZK proof.

[Mandela Digital Secures $5 Million in Funding with Participation from Datavault AI] According to Globenewswire, stablecoin issuer Mandela Digital has secured $5 million in funding, with participation from Datavault AI. The funds will be used for infrastructure development, compliance, exchange integration, liquidity, and marketing, as well as to accelerate the launch of the USD-pegged stablecoin MUSD. Datavault AI will provide MUSD with technical support, including an AI platform, blockchain tokenization, SanQtum quantum-resistant encryption, and a real-world asset (RWA) framework.