At present, the market is under triple pressure, with the Brent crude oil contract touching $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield breaking 4.7%, and the US dollar index rising to $101. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July is 37.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 62.1%. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on July 30th (UTC+8) at 10:00.
AI interpretation: The current market pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision reflects deep concerns about the continuation of tightening policies. The synchronous increase in oil prices and US bond yields has directly pushed up financing costs and intensified the tightening pressure on the financial environment. The increase in the probability of interest rate hikes has made the market wary of the risk of inflation rebound, forcing investors to reassess the timing of the shift in monetary policy. This pricing logic reinforces the expectation of a long-term high interest rate environment, which continues to suppress risky assets.
