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BTC is currently oscillating around $65000, and the market is waiting for the next round of catalysis. Divergence in funding: On one hand, there is institutional funding pressure, and BTC ETFs have recently experienced net outflows, indicating that traditional funds are becoming cautious in the short term; On the other hand, on chain data shows that there are large buy orders around $65000, and some main players are reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Now focus on two directions: Price signal: ① Standing at $65500 Indicating that the buying market has regained its advantage, pay attention to opportunities to break through $66000-67000. ② Falling back to $64200-64500 Observe whether the main force continues to undertake, and if it stabilizes, pay attention to opportunities for low suction. ③ Fall below $63800 Short term structure weakens, requiring a reduction in position. Event signal: ① Changes in the US Iran situation The Strait of Hormuz and oil prices remain the biggest variables. If the conflict escalates, risk assets may quickly come under pressure; If the situation eases, BTC may experience a risk appetite correction. ② BTC ETF fund flow If the ETF returns to net inflows, it indicates a return of institutional buying, which will help break through the $65000 pressure level. ③ Changes in Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts Subsequent economic data and official statements will affect the market's assessment of liquidity. In terms of operation, price warnings can be set in advance: Above $65500, pay attention to opportunities to break through and follow; 64200-64500 US dollars, pay attention to retracement and undertake; Below $63800, control the risk. At present, BTC is not without opportunities, but waiting for 'funds to choose a new direction'. The divergence between on chain funds and institutional funds may determine the next market trend. Risk Warning: The views, conclusions, and recommendations presented in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
