Three days without market updates—did you miss me? Let’s start with this week’s fundamentals: Over the weekend, tensions in the Gulf region cooled off temporarily, leading to Brent crude dropping about 5.2% and WTI falling around 5.4%. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar also pulled back, while U.S. stock futures rebounded. This combination is short-term positive for crypto assets, as it eases both inflation and liquidity tightening expectations. However, the real risk this week comes from the Federal Reserve. Official data shows the FOMC meeting will take place on July 28–29, with the statement expected to be released around 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 AM. The market is currently pricing in about a one-third chance of a rate hike, meaning the uncertainty for this meeting is significantly higher than a typical rate-setting meeting. Additionally, on July 30 at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the U.S. will release Q2 GDP preliminary data and June PCE figures, followed by the Q2 Employment Cost Index on July 31 at 8:30 PM. In other words, the latter half of this week will feature a series of macro volatility windows. ETF flows are showing improvement but remain unstable: On July 24, BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $240.1 million, ending the previous streak of inflows; ETH spot ETFs had net outflows of about $70.7 million on the same day; However, ETH still recorded net inflows of roughly $103.9 million for the week, with total net inflows of about $337.7 million so far in July. This indicates institutional demand has improved significantly compared to June, but it’s not yet enough to confirm sustained unilateral inflows. In the next post, we’ll talk about the market trends! #BTC #XAU