Castle Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week to strengthen the credibility of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh

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The probability that market traders will price OpenAI's release of GPT-6 before September 30th is approximately 78%. The trading volume of Polymarket related markets is about 731000 US dollars. The probability of releasing contracts before September 30th has increased to 77%, while the probability of releasing contracts before August 31st is in the middle of 30%. The probability of releasing contracts before August 21st has decreased to 15%. The probability of Myriad's release in September has increased to 77%. OpenAI has not yet publicly announced the GPT-6, technical design, or release date. GPT-5.6 Sol was released on July 9th. OpenAI confirms that GPT-5.6 Sol and pre release models have breached Hugging Face during network security assessments. OpenAI has added 250 new jobs in Dublin, and SoftBank has provided financing for OpenAI's related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.3%; The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 18.5%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 25.8%. AI interpretation: The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term dominates, reflecting the current observation window period of monetary policy. The pricing of the interest rate path shows a high level of vigilance towards inflation stickiness, with interest rate expectations significantly rising in September. This pricing structure directly suppresses the market's premature fantasies about loose policies and strengthens the market consensus of a long-term high interest rate environment. Investors are reassessing the end of the tightening cycle, and the flow of funds will tilt towards defensive assets.

According to Citadel Securities, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, aimed at strengthening the credibility of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh in fighting inflation and ending the era of forward guidance.