Citadel expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, while the mainstream market expectation remains unchanged

According to CoinDesk, Citadel, which manages $67 billion in assets, expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, while cryptocurrency and traditional market analysts generally expect rates to remain unchanged. Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel, stated that a rate hike would decisively end the era of forward guidance, forcing the market to price based on data rather than policy expectations, and clarifying the independence of the Federal Reserve. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike is 35.8%, higher than 25.7% a week ago, but the mainstream market still bets that the Federal Reserve will hold its ground. Bitcoin has fallen from nearly $67000 to below $64000 since last Wednesday, with cautious market trading. AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the core anchor that determines the direction of global liquidity. Citadel's interest rate hike forecast has formed a fierce game with the mainstream consensus in the market, directly impacting investors' established expectations of a shift in monetary policy. This divergence has intensified the risk aversion in financial markets, forcing funds to reassess the duration of the high interest rate environment. The market pricing logic has shifted from relying on forward guidance to being extremely sensitive to real-time data, resulting in a significant increase in asset price volatility in the short term.