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Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/dm/L1CrUCgvqNK Tonight at 21:00, it will start broadcasting on time! The monthly chart officially closed in July, and the long short game for the whole month has been completely implemented. The mid-term structure of the market has been finalized. Compared to daily volatile fluctuations, monthly level closing lines can filter out short-term emotional noise and truly lock in the market's mid-term strength and weakness pattern. The closing of the July monthly line this round will directly determine the overall tone of the August market: whether to continue the high volatility wash or break through and start a new trend market. Today, we will comprehensively review the underlying logic of the July market by combining the monthly technical structure, the latest hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, overnight GDP and PCE inflation data, geopolitical risks, and ETF fund flows, and deeply dissect the overall trend rhythm and macro mainline of August. 1、 July Monthly Core Review: Mainstream Currency Strength Completely Differentiated BTC showed an overall trend of bottoming out and rebounding in July, followed by a high end contraction and volatility at the end of the month. The monthly chart closed with a repair oriented bullish trend. The risk of a monthly sharp decline has been completely eliminated, but the key pressure above continues to be under pressure. The volume at the end of the month can continue to converge, and the momentum of the bulls to attack is insufficient. Overall, it belongs to a bottom repair and non reversal oscillation accumulation structure. ETH has performed significantly better than the Big Dipper this month, leading the mainstream currencies in monthly gains. There are clear signs of fund rotation, and the bulls have sufficient resilience. But at the end of the month, it also fell into a period of volume reduction and consolidation, and the key pressure level was not effectively broken through. At this stage, the ability to take action declined, and in the short term, it entered the direction selection window. The overall characteristics of the July market are very clear: institutional funds support the bottom and block deep declines, macro hawks suppress and block large rises, maintaining structural volatility throughout the month, waiting for the end and beginning of the month window to complete directional breakthroughs. 2、 The core contradiction in the current market: emotions landing, trends waiting to be selected The implementation of the Federal Reserve's decision in the early morning, coupled with the latest GDP and PCE inflation data, has fully digested short-term macroeconomic sentiment. Inflation stickiness exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates to maintain stability, and expectations of interest rate cuts within the year continue to cool down. The upward potential of risk assets is continuously suppressed. However, at the same time, spot ETF funds continue to flow back, and the long-term allocation trend of institutions remains unchanged. The market bottom support is stable, and there are no conditions for systematic bear trading. The two major logics of one empty and one many are in conflict with each other, which is also the core reason for the sustained volatility in July. August will be a crucial month for completely breaking this contradiction and emerging from the unilateral trend. 3、 The core logic of the August market trend: an important window of change for the whole year is approaching Unlike the stock volatility in July, August was a month of intense macroeconomic events and catalytic concentration, making it the most important turning point in the second half of the year. Inflation data at the beginning of the month set the pace for the first ten days, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in the latter half of the month will redefine the Federal Reserve's expectations for monetary policy in the fourth quarter. With the technical changes in demand and sufficient exchange of market chips after the end of the monthly chart, it is highly likely that the long-term range oscillation will end in August and a clear direction will emerge in the medium term. Tonight at 21:00, the live broadcast will focus on breaking down three core issues: 1、 What mid-term signals are hidden in the closing pattern of the July monthly line? Is the current market a wash up relay or a high-level pressure peak? II GDP、PCE、 Under the multiple pressures of hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, can the August market break free from the constraints of volatility and embark on a new trend market? 3、 How can the strength and weakness pattern of mainstream currencies continue? Will August lead the way in the big pie market or continue to strengthen ETH? Can the knockoff market have a chance to recover? The monthly line determines the mid-term, and the cycle determines the trend. Tonight at 9 o'clock, without any short-term fluctuations, we will only talk about the logic of the big cycle, help everyone clarify the overall market rhythm, market mainline, and risk boundaries in August, and lay out a new round of monthly market trends in advance! Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
