[VIX Futures Curve Rises as Traders Prepare for U.S. Midterm Election Volatility]
According to Jintou News, stock derivatives market traders are preparing for increased volatility during the U.S. midterm elections in November. The price of the September VIX futures contract is approximately 17.4, the October contract has risen to 19, and the November contract has climbed to 19.7. Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, stated that as the U.S. election approaches, the VIX futures term structure is showing an upward curve. Research from analysts at Cboe Global Markets indicates that since 1945, actual volatility in 80% of midterm election years has been higher than the previous year, with an average increase of 3.5 volatility points. In years when the White House and Congress are controlled by the same political party, actual volatility has increased by an average of 6 volatility points.
