The July non farm payroll report for the United States will be released today at 20:30 (UTC+8), with Wall Street institutions predicting a range of 18000 to 83000 new jobs. A Dow Jones survey shows that economists expect an average of 83000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%; Bank of America expects around 80000 people, while Vanguard Group predicts 18000 people. After Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh abandoned forward guidance, economic data became the determining factor in pricing the Fed's future interest rate path. If the data shows a stable labor market, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates up to three times this year.
AI interpretation: Non farm employment data, as the core barometer of the labor market, directly determines the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift. The significant divergence in the current market regarding employment growth reflects a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook, which exacerbates the volatility risk in the financial market. If the data performs strongly, it will completely shatter the market's aggressive expectations of interest rate cuts and force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening stance. This data is not only an anchor for short-term asset pricing, but also a key basis for determining whether the US economy is in recession.
