Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/dm/UfwQyc7RvLHl
Brothers, tonight at 8 o'clock, start broadcasting on time.
At 8:30 pm tonight, the US non farm payroll report for July is released - BTC has been hovering around $64000 for three weeks, and both long and short are waiting for this variable. Tonight's set of numbers has a high probability of breaking the deadlock.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network has experienced a burst of 234 million US dollars, with 108 million long orders and 126 million short orders. Nearly 100000 people were cleared from the field, both long and short positions were damaged, and no one took advantage - but after tonight, one side will definitely pay a greater price.
Tonight's non farm core data
The market expects a non farm employment increase of 80000 to 83000 in July, higher than the 57000 in June; The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%; The average hourly wage growth rate is expected to remain between 3.8% and 3.9%.
But the forward-looking indicators have already turned yellow - ADP's "small non farm" report shows that the private sector only added 44000 jobs in July, the lowest since January this year. The number of initial jobless claims has remained below 200000 for three consecutive weeks, indicating a resilient but marginal weakening in the labor market.
Three scenario deduction
Scenario 1: Data below expectations (<70000) → ADP's weakness is confirmed, and the signal of employment cooling is confirmed. The market's concerns about the Fed's interest rate hike have eased, and BTC is likely to break through 65000-65500 and even test 66000-67000. ETH is synchronously rising, with a target of 1950-2000.
Scenario 2: Data meets expectations (70000-90000) → Whether it is good or not, the market will be in a dilemma. The overall increase has rebounded but is lower than the pre ADP value. If the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, the market may experience severe fluctuations before choosing a direction - it is highly likely to continue to grind in the 63500-65500 range.
Scenario 3: Data higher than expected (>95000) → signals that the job market remains strong, reinforcing the logic of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates or even further raising them. BTC may fall below 63000-63500, and even test 62000-61500. ETH is likely to fall below 1800.
Tonight at 8 o'clock, explain three things clearly
1、 How to adjust the position before and after the release of non farm payroll data? How much is the leverage reduced to? How to set up a hanging order?
2、 Specific response plans for three scenarios - how to pursue upward breakthroughs? How to prevent a downward breakthrough? How to wait until it meets expectations?
3、 The 15 minutes after the data is released is the most dangerous window. How to avoid being harvested by the first candlestick?
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
