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Three dimensional integrated trading system | ETH morning analysis and deduction ——ETH is more resilient than BTC, but what are the underlying issues? Recently, I have noticed that ETH is more resilient, with a strong rebound and a smooth decline, unlike Bitcoin, which is a bit different. Why is this? 1、 Market Review ETH has recently performed significantly better than BTC. When BTC was repeatedly blocked around 64000, ETH remained stable above 1900 and even surged to around 1960 at one point. Since rebounding from the July low of 1846, ETH has reached its highest point of 1967, with a rebound of about 6.5%, while BTC has only rebounded by about 3.8% during the same period. This phenomenon of "ETH outperforming BTC" has been rare in the past few months. 2、 Quantity price relationship: the biggest hidden danger But upon closer inspection of the daily chart, a signal is flashing red: Since July 1st, the daily trading volume has been continuously decreasing, but the price has risen from around 1750 to above 1900. A typical volume price divergence: the price reaches a higher peak, but the trading volume does not increase synchronously. This is not a healthy upward structure. The truly solid rise is the increase in quantity and price. Volume reduction and price increase indicate a decrease in chasing funds and a weakening of the foundation for rebound. 3、 Why can ETH withstand a decline? Institutions are attracting funding On chain data provides the answer: institutions are buying. (1) The Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of approximately $245 million in the first week of August, with BlackRock clients contributing approximately $50 million; (2) Giant Whale and institutional wallets continue to increase their holdings, while the exchange's ETH continues to experience net outflows, resulting in a decrease in supply; (3) Q2 data shows that institutional/corporate ETH holdings have increased to 1.3 million, and funds are flowing from exchanges to long-term pledges and ETFs. So the logic is clear: the price of ETH is supported by institutional buying, but the willingness of retail investors to chase higher prices is weakening. 4、 Subsequent trend deduction Core contradiction: Medium term institutional bullish vs. short-term quantitative decline. Path 1 (benchmark, probability 50%), high-level oscillation: (1) ETH fluctuated between 1900-1960; (2) Waiting for BTC to choose its direction, if BTC stabilizes at 64000, ETH is expected to break through 1960 and test 2000; (3) Trigger condition: Continuous inflow of ETF+no selling by Whale. Path 2 (bearish, probability 35%), retracement test support: (1) If 1960 is repeatedly obstructed and the quantity continues to shrink, backtesting in the 1850-1880 range; (2) This area is a daily EMA50 and early chip intensive zone, with buying support; (3) Trigger condition: BTC falls below 63000 or macro bearish. Path three (too many, probability 15%), breakthrough in volume: (1) If the volume stabilizes at 1960 and effectively breaks through 2000, the target is 2300-2500; (2) The ETH/BTC exchange rate may strengthen synchronously; (3) Trigger condition: ETF significantly accelerates inflow+BTC synchronously breaks through. My core judgment ETH tends to be strong in the short term but its foundation is unstable. Long positions need to wait for confirmation of increased volume, while short positions need to wait for the signal to be blocked again after the US CPI data is released at 8:30 pm tonight. Institutional fundraising provides mid-term bottom support for ETH, but the deviation between daily volume and price indicates that short-term high chasing risks are accumulating. Best Strategy: (1) Radical: Observing obstructed signals around 1950-1960, light position testing short, stop loss 1980, target 1880-1900; (2) Steady: Wait for the volume to stabilize at 1960 before going long, or wait for a pullback to 1850-1880 before intervening. Key observation positions: 1960 (short-term resistance), 1880 (first support), 2000 (bull bear boundary). What is your follow-up bottom price for ETH? What is the trading plan? Welcome to the comment section to discuss your judgment. Explore the intelligent future and establish a trading system. Wishing everyone a smooth trading day and progress together.
