The core CPI in the United States fell to 2.5% year-on-year in July, the lowest since March 2021, and the probability of a rate hike in September also decreased from 50% to 40%.
According to normal logic, the cooling of inflation and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts should be favorable for BTC.
But the market did not go that way.
After the release of CPI, BTC briefly surged to $64400 and then quickly fell back to around $63500.
What is reflected behind this is not a 'negative CPI', but a more noteworthy signal for investors:
Positive news has emerged, but funds have not continued to chase prices.
This usually means that the market has already traded some of the expected interest rate cuts in advance, and the real incremental funds are still waiting for more confirmation. Therefore, we cannot only rely on positive news now, but also on whether the price can realize the benefits.
Set warning location:
$63800: First key position. Stand firm again and pay attention to $64500.
$62650: First support. After falling below, continue to pay attention to $61505.
If PPI continues to show a cooling of inflation tonight and BTC rebounds to $63800, it indicates that funds are truly responding to loose expectations, and the surge and fall may only be short-term market washing.
On the other hand, if PPI falls short of expectations and BTC falls below $62650, the market needs to be wary of further adjustments after the positive news is realized.
The most worthwhile thing to see now is not how good CPI is, but whether BTC can "raise" this good news.
Risk Warning: The above content is only for market information sharing and data analysis, and does not constitute investment advice.