[HSBC States CSP Capital Expenditure Has Not Peaked, Leverage Capacity Supports AI Until 2028]
According to Trend Research, HSBC's report on August 12 pointed out that market concerns over CSP capital expenditure peaking are excessive. The growth rate of capital expenditure for the five major CSPs is expected to decline from 95% in 2026 to 11% in 2028, with free cash flow shifting from $34 billion to -$104 billion. HSBC's analysis indicates that when capital expenditure reaches $1.0 to $1.6 trillion in 2027 or $1.9 to $2.5 trillion in 2028, CSP's net debt-to-equity ratio will still remain within a controllable range. HSBC's top recommendations include Marvell, Intel, TSMC, and ASML, with target prices of $300, $200, NT$3,400, and €2,149 respectively. It also maintains target prices for Alphabet at $420, Amazon at $310, Microsoft at $595, Meta at $830, and Oracle at $316.
