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The weakening of US economic data and the adjustment of interest rate options market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. The July non farm payroll report in the United States showed a decrease of 23000 jobs and the largest decline in retail sales in over a year. Investors in the interest rate options market are closing their positions betting on interest rate hikes in September and December, and shifting their focus to trading for interest rate cuts before mid-2027. The SOFR options market has seen contracts betting on keeping interest rates unchanged in September, as well as call options expiring in March and June 2027. The interest rate swap market shows that the Federal Reserve's September meeting implies about 9 basis points of room for interest rate hikes, with a cumulative tightening expectation of about 40 basis points by June 2027. Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad predict that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is approximately 74% to 75%. AI interpretation: The decrease in non farm employment and the significant decline in retail sales directly reveal a significant decline in the growth momentum of the US economy. The simultaneous cooling of the labor market and weak consumption has completely put an end to the market's illusion of short-term interest rate hikes. Investors have significantly postponed their expectations of interest rate cuts until 2027, reflecting deep concerns in the market about the long-term stagnation of the economy. This drastic shift in pricing logic marks a shift in the focus of the Federal Reserve's policy from anti inflation to anti recession.