According to CME Federal Reserve observations, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 63.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.2%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 6.8%.
AI interpretation: The market's expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term dominates, reflecting the current observation window of monetary policy. The pricing of the interest rate path shows a cautious attitude towards balancing inflation and economic growth, and the expectation of interest rate hikes has not completely subsided. This pricing structure suppresses market fantasies of aggressive interest rate cuts and reinforces the policy tone of a long-term high interest rate environment. Investors are adjusting their asset allocation based on the probability distribution of interest rates to cope with the liquidity pressure brought by the Federal Reserve's tightening stance.
