Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/9850662513
Breaking down the current core message surface
Positive factors
1. US Treasury Department stabilizes bond market operations
The US Treasury expanded the repurchase scale of long-term treasury bond bonds, improved the liquidity of US bonds, the yield of long-term US bonds fell, the US dollar index weakened, and the collective rebound of risky assets, gold and crypto assets was the macro trigger of this round of big rebound. The market interprets it as a disguised relief of liquidity pressure, but it is not QE and belongs to temporary liquidity regulation with limited long-term effects.
2. The SEC's proposal for new regulations on cryptocurrency regulation has been implemented
The SEC has launched a proposal for regulating encrypted assets, setting up two financing exemptions and a safe harbor clause to provide compliant financing paths for small and medium-sized projects. The industry has seen expectations of regulatory certainty, which has boosted sentiment. The proposal is still in the 60 day public opinion stage and has not yet been officially implemented.
3. Short positions in derivative products are concentrated and liquidated, driving down the market
In the early stage, the market accumulated a large number of short positions, and after the price broke through the key resistance, it triggered a large-scale short position liquidation, passive buying to boost the market. Within 24 hours, the short position liquidation scale was close to 3 billion US dollars, and the short-term buying power was quickly released. The BTC spot ETF experienced a large net inflow in a single day, with institutional funds flowing back in stages, rather than a sustained large-scale inflow.
4. Market risk preference repair
The US stock market and gold prices rose simultaneously, and risk appetite rebounded, driving up the overall market value. After the large market rose, funds spread to large cap altcoins, and the overall market value of the market increased.
Negative factors
1. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are hawkish, and expectations of interest rate cuts are fluctuating
The latest meeting minutes show that most officials still retain the possibility of further interest rate hikes, and if inflation rebounds, it is not ruled out that tightening may resume; The market has once again postponed the timing of interest rate cuts, and the medium - to long-term liquidity ceiling still exists, which is the biggest macro risk to suppress the market. This rise is driven by the Treasury Department's bond market operations, not the Federal Reserve's shift towards easing, which needs to be distinguished.
2. Short term technology enters overbought, accumulating pressure for correction
The BTC daily RSI has entered the overbought range, and after a rapid short-term rise, there are abundant profit taking opportunities, and there may be large-scale profit taking and selling pressure at any time; After the completion of short selling, the passive buying power weakens, and there is a lack of new incremental funds to relay, which can easily lead to a surge, a fall, and a volatile wash up.
3. Regulation is just a proposal, not the final bill
The SEC's new regulations are only a draft for soliciting opinions and will be subject to multiple rounds of competition from lawmakers and the industry. There is a possibility of modification or shelving in the future. Do not consider them as significant positive news that has already been implemented, as they are speculative at the level of expectations.
This round of rise is a forced rebound brought about by the resonance of improved liquidity in the Treasury bond market, regulatory expectations, and short selling, rather than a complete shift towards loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
The short-term market has entered a high divergence stage, do not blindly chase after the high; The medium-term market cannot be separated from US inflation and employment data. Most of the positive news remains at the expected level, and further data and funding verification are needed.
Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.
