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More >Today 2026-08-22
: a. ETH sold between 1738 and 1931 was bought back at 2100 with a stop-loss order. b. I just sold 50% of my ETH spot holdings at 2525, attempting to reach the top, with a stop-loss at 2550 (1%). The take-profit order will be adjusted downwards based on market conditions. My previous bearish predictions were wildly wrong; I was really lucky not to miss out: 1. Previously, due to a significant drop in coin price increases, BTC could even fall back to levels seen six years ago, holding on was too risky. Therefore, I started swing trading in February, and thus set up Aicoin's phone alerts, so that when ETH broke 2000 during this rally, I received an alert【Figure 2】. (Although I didn't receive the call immediately) If I hadn't set up the phone alerts, I would most likely have only seen the price surge the next day, by which time it would have been too late. 2. As mentioned before, to earn ETH staking interest and short position funding fees, and to reduce exchange risk, my trading method was: I deposited a small portion of my ETH into Binance, staked it as WBETH, used WBETH as margin, and opened a short position in a perpetual contract with "full ETH spot holdings." This was intended to earn interest using a cryptocurrency-based approach, but objectively, it resulted in me being fully invested in cryptocurrencies while having one foot in cash, ready to exit at any time. When ETH started to surge on the evening of August 19th, the rapidly increasing huge losses allowed me to quickly decide to close all losing short positions (equivalent to buying back all my spot cryptocurrencies). However, if I hadn't been doing swing trading, I would most likely be fully invested in USDT. I definitely couldn't immediately decide to chase the surge and go all-in on ETH; I would have wanted to observe first, at least spend time depositing USDT, and then be significantly shaken out of the market. At the time, I thought it was just a short squeeze, (now I'm 90% sure the bear market is over). After the short squeeze, there would be one last drop, I never imagined it would rise this much. If I hadn't opened a short position in perpetual contracts, I'd probably be like most cyclical traders now, still holding USDT and missing out on the gains. 3. The liquidity of perpetual contracts is much higher than spot (approximately 10:1 on Binance), allowing me to quickly close my short position at 2100, and then open a long position at 2100 【Figure 3】. I thought it was just a short squeeze, and the price would only rise to 2200 at most, so I placed a take-profit order for my long position at 2198, but it was wiped out within an hour. Then the price rose too sharply, and my low-priced orders didn't fill. Since I also had spot positions, I didn't open any more long positions until just now when I tried to test the top at 2525. Note that we are still in a significant upward trend. The probability of successfully identifying the top is very low. Therefore, a 1% stop-loss was set at 2550, hoping to achieve a high risk-reward ratio despite the low probability of success. 5. Prediction is not important. Prediction is just guessing a scenario. It's inherently a 50/50 chance, at most 40/60. What's important is execution. If you're right, hold on (for example, my last ETH short position from 2331 to 1645), if you're wrong, cut your losses. It's about prioritizing risk control over judgment. But this time, my mistake was setting the stop-loss too far. I just casually set it at 2200. Essentially, I overestimated the four-year cycle and didn't believe the current bear market's magnitude and duration would be sufficient. Mentally, I set a stop-loss that I thought "wouldn't be reached," leading to a significant loss of previous profits. 6. Such a massive surge exceeded most people's expectations, leaving many who missed out (especially cyclical investors like myself). Even though I still have 20-30% of my USDT reserves that haven't been used to buy ETH, my current plan is: a. If BTC falls back to the 67,000-72,000 range, I'll buy it all immediately. b. Otherwise, I'll buy it at the current price by the end of October at the latest. 7. This round of ETH's surge has been extremely strong, especially the ETH/BTC exchange rate. After the first surge, it still managed a second wave 【Figure 4】, indicating that ETH is the engine of the bull market, not just a diffusion effect after BTC's rise. The reason for this is Trump's strong embrace of blockchain technology. US financial assets (dollars, stocks, bonds, etc.) will be largely on-chained, tokenized, and made into smart contracts. This will bring enormous global financial freedom, as discussed extensively before, so I won't repeat myself. This round, ETH is expected to outperform BTC. For example, if BTC reaches 200,000 USDT, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.1, ETH will reach 20,000 USDT. (These are just rough estimates, not actually calculated.) Previous post: https://x.com/Jiangzhuoer2/status/2077395502866510037
