Fundstrat: The long-term yield of US Treasury bonds is the next wall, but the target of 8000 has not changed The latest monthly update of Fundstrat said the largest macro risk in the future, the global long-term treasury bond bond yield. The yield of 30-year treasury bond bonds of the United States has reached a decade high, and the long-term interest rates of Germany, Japan, Britain and France are also rising. This is the global bond market repricing inflation expectations, fiscal deficits, and term premiums. What we need to worry about now is that if the long-term market continues to maintain high levels, it will gradually compress stock valuations (especially for technology growth stocks), while raising corporate financing costs and government interest burdens. So Tom Lee called it the next wall of worry in the market. Low liquidity in August can easily amplify fluctuations. Now it happens to be the typical off-season in August. In the summer, as trading volume decreases and institutional trading activity also decreases, the impact of the same scale of capital flow on prices will be significantly amplified. In the short term, it is easy to see frightening daily drops, rapid sector rotation, and sudden yield increases. So the recent wave of volatility is a high-level oscillation and chip reshuffle caused by high valuations, high long-term interest rates, and low liquidity. We need to focus on whether the long-term yield can stabilize and whether the key trend support of the market has been truly disrupted. Even though interest rates are soaring, Fundstrat still maintains the SPX 8000 target This year, their target for S&P has been continuously adjusted from 7300 to 7700, and then to 8000, with no change in direction. The logic is that this year, new "worry walls" have been emerging in the market: geopolitics, AI foam disputes, recession concerns, inflation, fiscal deficits, and now the long-term yield. But as long as the profitability of the enterprise does not systematically deteriorate, the economy does not decline, and financial conditions do not spiral out of control, these risks will bring about valuation compression and periodic corrections. If the 30-year yield continues to rise rapidly, the first ones to suffer will still be overvalued and long-term assets, especially technology stocks that have already risen significantly this year. At this time, funds are more likely to rotate towards areas such as healthcare, finance, industry, energy, and commodities that have relatively low valuations or can benefit from nominal economic growth. Conversely, if the long-term yield peaks at a high level and begins to decline, then the software that was previously suppressed by interest rates AI、 The growth sectors of fintech and biotechnology will have room for valuation expansion again. Fundstrat is not so pessimistic about the political environment in the United States. In history, the market actually prefers a situation of "division and balance" because a congressional deadlock means that the probability of a sudden major policy shift decreases, and the uncertainty faced by businesses and capital markets is actually smaller. Even if a party superficially controls Congress, the Senate's Filibuster rule still sets a high threshold for major legislation. So compared to politics, Fundstrat currently focuses more on variables that can truly change asset pricing, such as interest rates, liquidity, and financial conditions. Fundstrat maintains a relatively positive attitude towards cryptocurrencies. Even if regulatory legislation such as the Clarity Act progresses slower than market expectations, the industry can still continue to move forward within the existing regulatory framework and judicial precedents. If further regulation clarifies this, it will become an additional upward catalyst. So for cryptocurrencies, the bigger short-term variables at the moment are still liquidity, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields. As long as the long-term interest rates are not completely out of control and the liquidity environment of risky assets is not reversed, the medium - to long-term logic of encryption will still exist.