This is an article I published in the subscription section on July 2 this year. Just 4 days earlier (June 28), a historically high-probability but rarely triggered BTC macro bottom signal appeared. After observing for a few days and confirming the signal's validity, I reminded everyone to pay attention—there’s a very high chance we’ve entered the bear market bottom here. At the same time, for the article cover, I deliberately used an image of “breaking a cup as a signal.” This was a promise I made with my friends before. I hope those who haven’t subscribed can also see it and understand the message. Based on historical sample backtesting, after this signal appears, there’s typically an additional -3% to -5% downward space. This means the bottom is roughly around $56,000. The expected bottoming timeframe is 1-3 months. Unfortunately, BTC didn’t give a second chance after that. From this perspective, $57,800 is very likely the bear market bottom for this cycle. It’s both within reason and somewhat unexpected. I know there are still many friends waiting for $50k, $40k, or even $30k BTC. To be honest, this is beyond my understanding. If BTC really drops to $30k, I wouldn’t buy it. Because that’s not normal cost reduction—it’s the destruction of Bitcoin!