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Sometimes, human memory or first impressions can be pretty unreliable. For example, I used to think that after the Winter Solstice, nights would keep getting longer. But actually, the Winter Solstice is the day with the longest night and the shortest day. Starting from the Winter Solstice, every day after that, the daytime gets longer, and the nighttime gets shorter. In other words, on the darkest night, the cycle reversal has already begun. On the Summer Solstice, that day has the longest daytime and the shortest night. It’s also a turning point. But based on first impressions, we often think spring breezes mark the turning point. A lot of people mistakenly think the Autumn Equinox or Winter Solstice is the turning point. In reality, it’s the Winter Solstice and Summer Solstice that are the true turning points. The Spring Equinox and Autumn Equinox just happen to be the days when daytime and nighttime are equal. But they’re not reversals; they’re the continuation of the trend. When we notice daytime and nighttime are equal, the trend is already halfway through. When we realize it’s a bear market, or confirm it’s a bull market, the trend is already halfway through. If you enter at the hottest moment, or exit at the coldest moment, you’ve already lost before the dawn. The real trend reversal happens during the hottest days of summer and the coldest days of winter. Look at semiconductors and $BTC— seems like it’s the same story.

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