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Damn, the US-Iran military conflict is escalating again❗️ Global oil prices are rising once more—could this accelerate BTC's price correction and pullback? Over the weekend, the US military struck two Iranian weapons facilities, and in retaliation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched missiles at a US base. Meanwhile, an oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude futures opened higher on Monday, trading at $85.13 per barrel, as geopolitical risk premiums are being repriced. In my opinion, rising oil prices are a double-edged sword! Why? (1) The US-Iran conflict is pushing oil prices higher, but the short-term impact on BTC is unclear. Rising oil prices → heightened inflation expectations → stronger rate hike expectations → pressure on risk assets. This leans bearish. (2) However, the "dollar credibility erosion" narrative is also gaining traction, and the logic of gold and BTC rising together still holds. These two narratives are pulling in opposite directions, so the market will decide which one it believes more. That said, based on my analysis in the weekly market report, Bitcoin's bullish momentum is weakening. Daily trading volume shows a divergence between price and volume, with ETF institutions seeing a net outflow of around $200 million on Friday. The resistance above $82K is significant. With escalating geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, a faster pullback seems likely. BTC needs to pull back and consolidate before it can successfully break upward! What do you all think?
