Although recently on Twitter, most people see the current phase as the start of a Bitcoin bull market. But I have to throw a bit of cold water on that, because the recent macro environment has clearly tightened. As of September 2, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.79%, and Japan's 10-year Treasury yield has also hit 3%, marking a new high since 1996. Polymarket trading data shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September has climbed to about 59%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is around 40.5%. At the same time, market expectations for the midterm elections are shifting, with the probability of the Republican Party losing control of the House reaching about 89%, and losing control of the Senate at around 51%. These changes collectively point to rising funding costs and declining market risk appetite. Higher U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, while Japan's rate hike expectations could trigger yen carry trade unwinding. If the Republican Party loses control of Congress, the Trump administration's ability to push crypto-friendly policies will also be constrained. Therefore, even if Bitcoin remains in a bull market cycle, there could still be significant short-term volatility and deleveraging, with price rebounds likely facing pressure. Only when bond yields peak, rate hike expectations cool down, or market funds flow back in, will Bitcoin have a better chance of resuming sustained growth.