According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 82.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 17.7%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 18.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 67.6%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 13.7%.
AI interpretation: This data reflects the latest pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in the market, clearly pointing to the consensus of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term. The change in the probability of interest rate hikes reveals the market's game between inflationary pressure and economic resilience, strengthening the expectation of maintaining high interest rates. This pricing logic directly suppresses the market's premature expectations of loose policies, forcing investors to reassess the risk premium of asset allocation. The policy stance of the Federal Reserve has shown strong continuity supported by current data, and the market has fully digested the reality that the tightening cycle has not yet ended.
