According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 82.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 17.7%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 18.7%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 67.6%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 13.7%. AI interpretation: This data reflects the latest pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in the market, clearly pointing to the consensus of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the short term. The change in the probability of interest rate hikes reveals the market's game between inflationary pressure and economic resilience, strengthening the expectation of maintaining high interest rates. This pricing logic directly suppresses the market's premature expectations of loose policies, forcing investors to reassess the risk premium of asset allocation. The policy stance of the Federal Reserve has shown strong continuity supported by current data, and the market has fully digested the reality that the tightening cycle has not yet ended.

In the past year, the phenomenon of BTC address reuse has increased, and the balance of reused addresses has grown from 3.79 million to 4.33 million, accounting for 21.5% of the circulating supply. （glassnode）

[Houthi Forces Attack Saudi Airport, U.S. Develops Strike Plan Against Iran] Yemen's Houthi forces attacked Riyadh Airport in Saudi Arabia, damaging a Saudi national airline plane. The U.S. Embassy in Saudi Arabia issued a security alert. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Vahidi warned of a response to illegal passage attempts in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Trump stated that there would be no attack on Iran before the midterm elections, while the Department of Defense is formulating a new three-day strike plan against Iran. Iran's nuclear chief declared no concessions on uranium enrichment, and Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed that negotiations are continuing through intermediaries. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 17 oil tankers linked to Iranian oil, while France deployed approximately 2,000 soldiers to assist in protecting the Yanbu oil terminal. (Source: Jinsan Data)

US Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a letter to Brandon Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, requesting information on Cantor Fitzgerald's financial relationship with Tether. Cantor Fitzgerald holds and manages Tether's reserve assets in the United States, with multiple commercial interests between the two parties. (Source: Bloomberg)

As Democrats steadily rise in their potential to take back a Senate majority, Senator Richard Blumenthal is digging into Tether's U.S. financial partnership.