China Post Securities reports that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in September may be the peak of tightening, with the central bank increasing its holdings of gold to support gold prices

China Post Securities stated in its non-ferrous metals report that the strengthening of the US dollar is suppressing the prices of base metals. The US non farm payroll data for August exceeded expectations, increasing the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September. If the core PCE in July falls below the 2% target and the CPI does not significantly approach 2% in August, a rate hike in September cannot be ruled out. The report suggests that the probability of consecutive interest rate hikes is low, and a rate hike in September may be the peak of tightening. From a configuration perspective, central banks around the world have significantly increased their gold reserves to support gold prices. China Post Securities expects a high probability of interest rate hikes in September, and if the rate hike triggers a price correction, it will be a buying opportunity for precious metals. AI interpretation: The unexpected non farm payroll data directly shattered the illusion of a cooling labor market, and the strong employment performance gave the Federal Reserve the confidence to maintain high interest rates. The stickiness of core inflation indicators forces monetary policy to maintain a tight stance, and the market's game over the endpoint of interest rate hikes has entered a white hot stage. This series of data combination completely blocks the space for short-term easing, and the high interest rate environment will continue to suppress the valuation repair of risk assets.