According to a report by JinShi, the number of non farm payroll workers in the United States increased by 162000 in August, higher than the market expectation of 55000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, and the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September to rise to about 60%. UBS recommends buying global stocks at low prices when profit prospects are strong, favoring themes such as AI, electricity and resources, and longevity. It believes that the rise in medium - and long-term high-quality bond yields provides allocation opportunities and recommends establishing gold positions after a pullback in gold prices.
AI interpretation: Employment growth has significantly exceeded market expectations, directly breaking the pessimistic view of a cooling labor market. The strong employment performance gives the Federal Reserve the confidence to maintain high interest rates, completely suppressing the need for aggressive interest rate cuts in the short term. The market's repricing of the probability of interest rate hikes reflects a shift in investment from loose expectations to defensive allocation. This data reinforces the narrative of an economic soft landing, forcing investors to reassess the asset valuation logic in a high interest rate environment.
