According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 40.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 59.4%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 15.8%. (Source: Federal Reserve)
AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path has significantly shifted, with expectations of rate hikes dominating. This data directly reflects investors' high vigilance towards the sustainability of tight monetary policy. The expected changes in the current interest rate environment are reshaping market risk appetite, and capital flows will further concentrate on defensive assets. The Federal Reserve's policy stance of maintaining high interest rates has become the core logic of market competition, and financial market volatility will continue to intensify in the short term.