CME FedWatch Indicates Probability of September Rate Hike to 25 Basis Points Rises to 71.3%

CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates unchanged in September is 28.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 71.3%. For October, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 17.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 54.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 27.6%. (Source: Jin10) AI Interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory has undergone a significant shift, reinforcing expectations for the persistence of a high-interest-rate environment. Current interest rate futures data reflect investors' firm bets on tightening policies, directly suppressing market optimism about a monetary policy pivot. This shift in pricing logic will lead to further tightening of financial market liquidity and exert direct pressure on risk asset valuations. The Federal Reserve's determination to maintain high interest rates has become the core variable driving market volatility.