Mahruf: Significant interest rate hikes may hit economic growth

The head of Russia's largest bank stated that the Central Bank of Russia is collaborating with the Reserve Bank of India to establish a bilateral trade settlement mechanism for digital currencies, with the aim of accelerating cross-border payment speeds and improving efficiency. Russia launched the digital ruble on September 1st; India will pilot a central bank digital currency in 2022 and it has been used in some government projects. The Kremlin stated that Russia will raise the issue of digital currency trade settlement at this week's BRICS summit in New Delhi, and India supports the initiative.

Prior to the release of CPI, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September on Polymarket rose to 61%, with an increase of 8% in 24 hours; The probability of remaining unchanged drops to 40%, with a decrease of 8% within 24 hours. The US Department of Labor will release August CPI data tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8). The market expects the overall CPI to rise by 0.4% month on month and 3.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2% month on month and 2.4% year-on-year. The last time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates was on July 26, 2023, with a 25 basis point hike, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 5.25% -5.50%. (Source: Federal Reserve) AI interpretation: On the eve of the release of CPI data, the market significantly raised expectations of interest rate hikes through gambling platforms, reflecting investors' extreme anxiety about the rebound of inflation. This emotional fluctuation directly increases the sensitivity of short-term interest rate pricing, indicating that the market's confidence in the Fed's policy shift is wavering. The current flow of funds indicates that risk aversion is dominant, and investors are hedging against the risk of inflation exceeding expectations by betting on interest rate hikes. This drastic adjustment in expectations indicates that the financial market will face significant volatility pressure after tonight's data release.

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The August CPI data for the United States will be released tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8). CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the probability of the Fed's interest rate remaining unchanged this month is 30.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 69.4%. (Source: Federal Reserve) AI interpretation: The market showed extremely high expectations of interest rate hikes before the release of CPI, reflecting investors' deep concerns about the rebound of inflation. The current interest rate pricing has fully taken into account the tightening pressure, and market sentiment is in a highly sensitive defensive state. This data will directly determine the tone of the Fed's subsequent policy path and trigger drastic fluctuations in asset prices. Investors are hedging against the risk of uncontrolled inflation by setting high interest rate hikes, which indicates that the market reaction tonight will be extremely intense.