"Weekend BTC Slight Dip, Three Macro Clues Brewing—Stay Alert ⚡" Hey fam, Bitcoin saw a slight dip over the weekend, mainly influenced by the interplay of three macro factors: oil prices, PPI, and rate hike expectations. 1. Oil prices surged but sharply retreated on Friday. Brent crude oil briefly broke above $107 midweek, gaining about 13% for the week. However, on Friday, oil prices fell nearly 3% from a four-month high, with Brent dropping back below $100. This actually boosted U.S. stock market sentiment, with the S&P 500 ending a four-day losing streak and closing up 0.9%. 2. PPI exceeded expectations, rate hike odds soared to 70%. U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, higher than expected. Coupled with elevated oil prices, market bets on a September Fed rate hike surged to around 70%. The 10-year Treasury yield nearly hit 5%, while the 30-year yield climbed above 5.35%. This directly pressured non-yielding assets like BTC. 3. BTC dropped after CPI, rebounded, then fell back to square one. Core CPI monthly rate came in at 0.3%, higher than expected. BTC initially dropped to $76,000, rebounded to $79,800, and then fell back to the $77,000 range. Around $500 million worth of positions were liquidated within 24 hours, with longs taking the majority hit. 4. Two notable on-chain signals. First, BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows for four consecutive days, with approximately $13.29 million flowing out on September 11. Second, unrealized profits of short-term whale holders briefly hit a record $9 billion. These investors are likely to turn into sellers at the slightest price movement. Dragon’s Perspective: Overall, the weekend dip is a continuation of macro deleveraging, not systemic selling by whales. Selling pressure during this rebound is less than half of the August peak, and long-term holders were largely absent from this wave of selling. This aligns with the view that "on-chain selling pressure is easing, and whales are not selling." However, short-term price movements don’t always align with long-term holders and whale accumulation. Friday’s candlestick with a long upper shadow indicates significant selling pressure above $80K. Without major bullish catalysts or consolidation, it’s unlikely to break above $80K directly. If the Fed confirms a rate hike in September, the probability of a price pullback to the $71K-$73K range remains relatively high. No short-term longs for BTC, but bullish on the mid-to-long term.