[Bitcoin Returns to $79,000 as U.S.-Iran Conflict Eases, Pressuring Oil Prices]
Influenced by U.S. President Trump's indication that the U.S.-Iran military conflict is nearing an end, international crude oil prices have retreated, and Bitcoin prices have rebounded to $79,000, briefly approaching $80,000 during intraday trading. Currently, US WTI crude oil remains above $100 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is quoted at $105 per barrel. The FedWatch Tool under CME Group shows that traders have raised the probability of the Federal Reserve announcing a 25 basis point rate hike this Wednesday to 92.7%, with the target rate range expected to rise to 3.75%-4%. (Source: Federal Reserve)
AI Analysis: The significant increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike directly reflects the continuation of the monetary policy tightening cycle. The prolonged high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress liquidity expectations for risk assets, fundamentally altering the market's pricing logic for funding costs. This rate adjustment underscores the Federal Reserve's firm stance against inflation, further solidifying the financial market's consensus on maintaining high interest rates for an extended period. This policy direction directly weakens market fantasies about accommodative monetary policy, forcing investors to reassess the valuation framework for various asset classes.
