The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 92.4%

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 92.4%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 4%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 52%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 44%. (Source: Federal Reserve) AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has reached a very high level, reflecting a deep consensus among investors on the sustainability of tightening policies. This probability distribution clearly indicates that the time span for interest rates to remain high will exceed previous expectations. The current financial environment is on a strong tightening track, and liquidity pressure is significantly increasing accordingly. This pricing logic directly suppresses the valuation space of risk assets and strengthens the market's defensive allocation to the long-term high interest rate environment.