Tom Lee predicts that the fourth quarter will usher in one of the biggest market rebounds of his life

The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic outlook shows that the median PCE inflation expectations for 2026-2028 are 3.7%, 2.3%, and 2.1%, respectively, while the median core PCE inflation expectations are 3.4%, 2.5%, and 2.2%, respectively.

The US House Financial Services Committee has postponed the vote on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act. （The Bitcoin Historian）

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike on the 17th, marking the first rate hike of 2026. The latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows that 18 out of 19 officials have submitted forecasts, with 16 believing that interest rates should be raised again this year. Specifically, 4 officials believe that a cumulative interest rate hike of 75 basis points should be implemented in 2026, 12 officials believe that a cumulative interest rate hike of 50 basis points should be implemented, 2 officials believe that a cumulative interest rate hike of 25 basis points should be implemented, 0 official believes that the interest rate should remain unchanged at 3.5% -3.75% this year, and 0 official believes that a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points should be implemented. (Source: Jin Shi) AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike directly shattered the market's illusion of a shift towards loose monetary policy. The dot plot shows that the vast majority of officials support further tightening, clearly expressing a tough stance against inflation. This policy path will continue to push up financing costs and directly suppress capital market valuations. The continuation of the high interest rate environment is a foregone conclusion, and the flow of funds will further concentrate on safe haven assets.

The Federal Reserve has raised the reserve rate to 3.9% and the discount rate to 4%.

The latest economic forecast from the Federal Reserve's FOMC shows that the median GDP growth rate expectations for 2026-2028 are 2.3%, 2.4%, and 2.2%, respectively. The latest dot matrix chart shows that 12 out of 18 officials expect to raise interest rates by 25 basis points once in 2026, 4 expect to raise interest rates twice, and 2 expect not to raise interest rates within the year. AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve has clearly expressed its firm confidence in the resilience of the US economy by raising its medium - and long-term economic growth expectations. The tendency of officials to raise interest rates shown in the dot matrix directly breaks the market's illusion of a shift towards loose monetary policy. This decision path clearly indicates that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tightening stance to address potential economic overheating risks. The duration of the high interest rate environment will exceed market expectations, which will substantially suppress financial market liquidity.