Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in October and December, with a rate cut in June 2027

Citigroup released a research report stating that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and expects a moderate month on month increase in core inflation in the coming months. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in October. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to wait for more data after October and remain inactive again in December, when inflation data provides evidence of a slowdown in inflation. As inflation continues to cool, Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in June 2027. AI interpretation: This prediction clarifies the policy path of the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged throughout the year, reflecting the institution's cautious assessment of the process of inflation decline. The expectation of maintaining high interest rates in the long term has suppressed the market's immediate fantasy of loose policies and strengthened the tone of monetary policy tightening over a longer period of time. This judgment directly negates the possibility of a short-term interest rate cut, forcing the market to recalibrate its pricing logic for interest rate inflection points.