According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until October is 77.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 22.7%; The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged until December is 13.4%, the probability of a cumulative increase of 25 basis points is 67.8%, and the probability of a cumulative increase of 50 basis points is 18.8%.
AI interpretation: The market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path has significantly shifted, with expectations of interest rate hikes dominating the year-end period. The current interest rate futures data clearly reflects the market's concerns about the risk of inflation rebound, forcing investors to reassess the endpoint of the tightening cycle. This expected shift has directly pushed up US bond yields and posed sustained valuation pressure on risk assets. The determination of the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates has been fully reflected in market pricing, and the window for interest rate cuts in the short term has been completely closed.
