QCP indicates a shift in macro narrative towards dovish sentiment, with expectations of a rate hike in October cooling down. In September, the number of non farm employment decreased to 29000, lower than the expected 84000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the year-on-year wage growth rate slowed down to 3.0%. The average number of non farm employment in three months dropped to 50700. The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds remains at 5.25%, and the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 22%. BTC rebounded to $86700 after hitting $87100 and needs to stabilize at $87200. ETH held at $2725 within the range of $2650 to $2800. The weekend settlement scale was 62.7 million US dollars, with short positions accounting for 68%. The minutes of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, TOKEN2049 from Thursday to Friday, and CPI data on October 14th are the focus of market attention.
AI interpretation: The significant weakening of non farm employment data directly reveals the weak trend of the labor market. The slowdown in salary growth and the rise in unemployment rate together constitute ironclad evidence of economic cooling. The rapid cooling of the job market has completely reversed the market's expectations of tightening policies. This data directly weakens the policy confidence of the Federal Reserve in maintaining high interest rates. The market has shifted its focus to pricing the risk of economic recession, establishing a logical chain for monetary policy to shift towards easing.
