Barclays: Oil price forecast faces upward risk

Barclays stated that the oil price forecast is facing upward risks due to the situation in the Middle East and demand side reactions. If the current situation persists, oil prices will rise by about 50% from the current level before the market reaches natural equilibrium. Inventory and demand indicators show that there is room for oil prices to rise before supply and demand return to equilibrium. The response from non OPEC supply side is limited, and there is a lag in production adjustment. Except for Brazil, non OPEC production growth has not significantly exceeded expectations. (Source: Barclays)